Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Nerd Gen Report. I'm your host, Pablo and joining me, as always, is Mr. Brian Scholz. Brian, when I shout out to Tracy 4994 because he sent me the, the link or the, the picture of the news, the rumors of Disney trying to sell Star wars on the down low, shopping it around, seeing what people think about this IP really in terms of what is worth. When I sent it to you all, I was thinking like DC is next right around the corner.
But Star wars, the fact that they're trying to shop this around to potentials that have the money to pay any price for them, but obviously the numbers guys are going to sort of negotiate what this IP shall be, what the number is for this IP will be if even goes that far. What does this say about Disney and what we've been saying for a long time already in terms of are people over this ip, even the execs over at Disney are over this IP and just don't want to deal with it, what are your thoughts? So what did you think about the possibility of that, that, that Disney's trying to, on the, on the low feel out if there are any takers, I'm.
[00:01:40] Speaker B: Not surprised because didn't we mention this at one of our shows? Didn't we, we had a conversation about IPs and I think we said Star wars versus Marvel. I think Star wars would be more likely, they'd be more likely to let go of Star wars than of Marvel. So I'm not actually shocked that they're investigating this.
To be clear, there's a lot of ways you can investigate it without being serious about it. So you could, Disney could simply hire some investment bank to put together a pitchbook, take it around and say like, just give it, give me some feedback. Just like what's like you, you have, you guys run a number. We know that number is going to be astronomically high. I'm sure it's north of $10 billion, right? They paid 4 billion for it. I guarantee with what they've sunk into it, they want more than 10, maybe even more than that. Maybe they want 20. I'm sure it's a really high number. But like they're gonna send the bankers out there around Hollywood and around Apple and Amazon, all these places say like, what's your reaction to this? If we really had this conversation, give me a hint as to where you would live in terms of a number and then they would bring that back to Bob Iger. That doesn't mean they're that close to selling it. To be clear, what it does mean to me is they would be first up. Right? That's the thing. Like if they not shopping Marvel, if they're not doing this with Marvel, but they're doing it with Star wars, it tells you like Star wars would be the more likely to go if it came to it. And obviously we know Kathleen Kennedy may be ushered out. Sort of like we may be retiring. Semi retiring. There's change, right? There's change going on. But look, we talked about it. This IP has been soiled. I don't know how else to put it. Like, it's been stained by the failures of the last trilogy. I think it's been stained by the chaos and the haphazard way that it has been metered out to audiences over the last, you know, 10 years.
And I think they've diminished its value and they've been unable to. They've been unable to keep it fresh and hot and hip with younger generations the way that they would have hoped to. And that's probably led to this conversation around with all it takes to spend on this, is it worth it? Are we getting our return to the level that we need to?
And yeah, I mean, Disney, like everyone else, post the streaming war mistake that everyone made, quite honestly, in terms of how much they spent and lost on streaming. Everyone's looking for cash, everyone's looking to recoup cash to varying degrees. Disney is not in the straits that Warner Brothers is in. But that doesn't mean that Bob Iger is above trying to clean up the house. You know, he's trying. We know he's trying to cut budgets on the Marvel side. Like, you know, we know that they're trying to cut costs on the park side. Like, yeah. So if it comes to, hey, someone's gonna give me a really big check to take a problematic piece of IP off my hands. Maybe it's worth it before he re retires to do that. I definitely think there's truth to the rumor, but I would estimate it's like second or third inning of.
Yeah, the process of sale. I don't think we're at the, like, fire sale. Everything must go stage.
[00:04:57] Speaker A: In order, I think, to entice further conversation.
The way I think you move the needle is by producing a film to show its earning potential, to show that audiences still do like Star Wars.
And that would be with Mangold's movie. Right? Because that is the beginning. You do that movie, you get people interested, then you can come to the table and Be like, we've given you the beginning of, of whatever next iteration of Star Wars. Star wars can be right now. As it is, nobody's interested because you have a track record of not putting out good stuff.
And you supposedly have the best of the best team for this.
Right. You have Filoni, you have Favreau, you have Kathleen Kennedy, who has, you know, that was hand picked.
The only way anyone else is thinking about is who's going to replace them and who's going to tackle that. Who do we put in charge? Because I'm not going to do it. Right.
It's just too big of a risk right now. Unless you set them on a.
You set them in a place where, yes, we can grow from this sort of situation. You help him see the light. Right now, there is no light.
There just isn't for us to be, like, interested in it. We Disney pay for. But you want us to pay 10, $15 billion for this and nobody wants to see it? That's a hard sell. They have to show them, I guess, proof of life.
[00:07:23] Speaker B: Yeah, I think it goes two ways. And I think there's also an angle to this that needs to be considered that is, I think, somewhat unique to Star Wars. So number one is if you're gonna. The IP will always have value. Make no mistake. This is not a zero. Just gonna disappear. Right. So if you're the buyer, clearly your pitch is going to be the IP is fading and is in a slump. So you want me to take it on. I'm not taking it on at a peak price. Right. I've taken it on at a discount price. And Disney's like, you're crazy. Even in a slump. This IP is worth, however, much more than any other IP besides Marvel or DC that you could get your hands on. And this is the only one for sale. So you should pay a premium price. That's what we call a bid ask. That's how that works. So what it does make me think, though, is if Disney is serious about this, there will not be a successor to Kathleen Kennedy inside. Why. Why would you. If you're Kevin Feige, why would you take that job? You're going to take that job and then the IP gets sold out from under you and the new head, new house, fires you. Like, that's. You're never going to do that. Nobody worth anything is going to step into that seat. Which kind of means that, like, watch that closely, because I almost feel like if you do see Favreau and Floni or Feige named as the Head of Star wars that will tell me that Disney's not selling it.
Because I just don't believe those guys would take the job if there was a real chance the IP was then going to be sold. So if Kathleen Kennedy kind of goes half into retirement and it's like we're going to run it by committee, then, then I think you start to be on the lookout for, you know, a deal or some talks. Because now there's no leadership and now you're kind of spinning your wheels or maybe like Iger's just like, listen, all those projects, Kathy, that you talked about that we haven't started, they're just gonna go away. So, like Mando Grogu is going to happen. Mangle movie maybe will happen. But like some of that other stuff that's in the wind, the Taika Waititi, the Ray movie, maybe even the Shawn Levy movie, he's like, we're just gonna qu shift all those into nothing.
And I think if you start to see that, that also will feed the pattern of this might be getting ready for sale. They just won't spend as much money on Star Wars.
The angle I think people are missing, which I think makes this sale complicated. Is everything non screen that Star wars is what is in that deal?
Will Disney sell Star wars and then really shudder Galaxy's Edge and Star Tours and give up all the rights to Lego and toys? Like, is that coming with this?
Because if it is, if that's part of the sale, there's a lot of buyers. For whom? Like for Netflix. That has no value. Netflix does not gonna build an amusement park. Netflix doesn't sell toys. They don't make toy. Right? So to them, if you're like, hey, we want you to take Star wars and everything associated with it. Netflix like, well, that to us that's a zero. We're not gonna pay you anything for that. Whereas Disney's like, well, that look at the sales, that clearly has value. So to me, selling Star wars is like, what are you selling? Are you only selling the film and TV rights?
Or are you trying to sell the entire enterprise as part of this? Because I think it changes. Like, to me, like Amazon's the only player that might care about the whole thing or at least has. You know, they care about bricks and mortar, right? They bought Whole Foods. Like, they will deal in Apple. No, Like Netflix no. Like another studio. No. They don't care about the toys and the rides. So then it's like, okay, is the deal like a hybrid deal? Is Disney retaining all of that? But only handing over the. We don't know any of that. See, that's all like a nuance to start.
[00:11:06] Speaker A: That would be some sort of negotiation, like we said in everything. But we'll be a distributors for all these other things.
[00:11:13] Speaker B: Well, and that exists, right? Think about like, so, for example, you can go on Harry Potter rides, but they are at Universal Studios, Orlando. Right. Like Universal Studios doesn't own Harry Potter, Warner Brothers does. But the Harry Potter ride is on a Universal lot. So, yeah, there's obviously a way to do this, but I think it makes it more complex than just selling the rights to like a character selling the rights to Batman. I know there's Batman toys and all this stuff, but it's like, it's easier to transfer one character and then do what you want with it. So, yeah, I, I'm very interested to see now what the succession. Because I mean, it's about the succession that will tell you so much about what's coming next.
But yeah, but Paulo, imagine this conversation. So here's the thing. Imagine this conversation after Rogue One came out. You imagine that. So like if they had tried to have this after Force awakens at Rogue One, they just brought those two back. So they made 2 billion and 1 billion. And they're like, hey, we made 2 billion on Skywalker 7. We made a billion plus on the expanded Universe and now we want to sell it. Imagine what that conversation would been like.
[00:12:14] Speaker A: Versus today you have a stronger hand. You can come in there with your chest out and stuff like that. Right now you can't, you know.
[00:12:23] Speaker B: Yeah, it's a turnaround story. That's what you're buying. A turnaround story. If you buy Star Wars. That's weird to say, but that's is what it is. Like I said, it's not going to affect the immediate term product. Right. Grogu, Mandu, that mando that's coming. I even saw they announced they're going to add them to. Speaking of the rides, they're going to add that to Galaxy's Edge as part of the Millennium Falcon ride. So that they're. If you have any doubt that that's going to happen, that is happening.
We're fingers crossed and all in on the Mango project and really hopeful that they fast track that and get that, get that to screen. But everything else I think is dvd. Everything else.
[00:13:01] Speaker A: Yeah. If Grogu don't say nothing in this Mandalorian movie, I'm out.
He gotta do something. He got to do something.
Yeah, let us know in the comment section. Below what you guys think of the possibility of start. What will be the number that you'd pay for it? Let us know in the comment section below. What would be the number that you'd pay for it right now? And had it been what was Brian pointed out after Star Wars 7, Rogue One, what would you pay for it then had, given the success that those two movies had, how much would you have paid for them? So those two, those are two numbers right there. Is it different? Yeah. Let us know in the comment section below what you guys think and we'll see you next time on the Nurjin Report.
